Strategy Guide
How this dashboard uses technical indicators, options context, and market regime data to generate composite signals — written for Malaysian investors.
How the Dashboard Works
The multi-timeframe framework, the decision hierarchy, and how it all becomes a single score.
The Multi-Timeframe Approach
This dashboard tracks six indicators across three timeframes to build a layered trend-following system. No single indicator tells the whole story — together they answer direction, momentum, and risk.
The Decision Hierarchy
The dashboard organizes all signals into a four-tier hierarchy. Each tier answers a different question, and lower tiers only matter when the higher tiers have been addressed:
Decision Hierarchy
How much risk to take?
Which way is the trend?
When to enter or exit?
Calibrate position size
Signal Alignment
Full Bullish
Price above 200 SMA, golden cross active, above 20 EMA, RSI bullish, MACD confirming, VIX calm. All timeframes agree — strongest signal.
Mixed Signals
Indicators disagree — e.g. 200 SMA bullish but 20 EMA crossed down. Trend is in transition. Caution, not conviction. Wait for re-alignment.
Full Bearish
Price below 200 SMA, death cross, below 20 EMA, RSI bearish, MACD bearish, VIX elevated+. All timeframes down — defensive mode.
Composite Signal Score
The composite score combines all six indicators into a single 0–10 number. Each indicator gets a sub-score from 0.0 (most bearish) to 2.0 (most bullish). These sub-scores are weighted by category and normalized to the 0–10 scale.
Rating Scale
Strong Sell
Caution
Favorable
Strong Buy
Category Weights
Different stock categories weight indicators differently. Leveraged stocks emphasize MACD (30%) for momentum confirmation; growth and dividend stocks emphasize the 200 SMA (25%) for trend direction. Sub-scores are graduated where magnitude matters: the 200 SMA and 20 EMA score by distance from the average, and RSI is scored by value and conditioned on the 200 SMA trend (an oversold dip only scores bullish in an uptrend).
The three moving averages are highly correlated, so their combined weight is capped at 45% (40% for leveraged) — the 50/200 cross confirms the 200 SMA rather than voting independently. Indicators with insufficient data are excluded and the remaining weights renormalised; if under half the weight has data, the score is pinned to a provisional 5.0.
Leveraged score caps (hard risk gates)
Leveraged stocks have hard score caps to prevent false confidence in dangerous conditions. VIX is counted once, in its 10% sub-score — these caps are gates, not a second VIX adjustment:
- VIX Crisis: Score capped at 2.0 — never enter leveraged positions in crisis
- Below entry MA: Score capped at 3.0 — base stock must be above its entry moving average
Score Trend & Historical Context
The composite score is a snapshot — it tells you where a stock stands right now. But for timing decisions, trajectory matters as much as level. A score of 6.0 trending up from 4.0 is a very different situation than 6.0 trending down from 8.0. The score trend answers: is this stock's outlook improving or deteriorating?
Reading the Display
Tier 1 — Score Deltas (always visible)
Next to the composite score and rating label, two delta values show the point-to-point change: today's score minus the single score from one specific past trading day. This is not an average, not a high/low — it compares against exactly one historical snapshot.
Tier 2 — Sparkline (in details panel)
Click "Show details" on any card to see a 30-day sparkline at the top of the expanded section. It plots one score per trading day, ending with today's score.
The dot at the right end marks the current score. Min and max values are annotated in the header.
What Trend Patterns Tell You
Rising Score
Indicators are converging bullish — multiple timeframes aligning. Conditions improving for entry or adding to positions.
Falling Score
Indicators are diverging — trend weakening across timeframes. Tighten stops, reduce size, or wait for stabilization.
Flat Score
Stable conditions — the current outlook is consistent with recent history. No urgency to change position.
Sharp Move
A delta of ±3.0 or more signals a major shift — a cross event, regime change, or reversal. Investigate the underlying indicators.
How historical scores are computed
The dashboard already fetches 5 years of daily closing prices from Yahoo Finance for each stock. To produce historical scores, it walks backwards through this data — for each of the past 30 trading days, it slices the price array to that point and recomputes all six indicator signals (200 SMA, 50/200 crossover, 20 EMA, RSI, MACD) as if that day were "today." VIX regime is similarly reconstructed from historical VIX daily closes.
The resulting composite score at each historical point uses the same category weights, sub-score mappings, and leveraged adjustments as the current score. No new data is fetched — the history is derived entirely from data the dashboard already has.
Trading days vs. calendar days
- 7d delta = today's composite score − the composite score from exactly 5 trading days ago (~1 calendar week)
- 30d delta = today's composite score − the composite score from exactly 22 trading days ago (~1 calendar month)
- The sparkline plots one score per day for the past 30 trading days — roughly 6 calendar weeks of market history
- Weekends and market holidays are skipped (no trading data exists for those days), so "5 trading days" may span 7–9 calendar days
Limitations
- Lagging by nature: Each historical score is itself built from lagging indicators. The trend line shows how lagging signals evolved — it does not predict future scores.
- VIX approximation: Historical VIX regime is reconstructed from daily closing prices, not intraday spot values. Intraday VIX spikes that may have affected real-time decisions are not captured.
- No intraday resolution: Scores are computed from daily closes only. Intraday moves that crossed and recrossed indicator thresholds are invisible.
- Cross events are transient: A cross event (e.g. GOLDEN_CROSS) only fires within the 5-day lookback window. A historical point that was 6 days after a cross will show BULLISH, not GOLDEN_CROSS, even though the cross was recent.
- New stocks: Stocks with fewer than 230 trading days of history will show a shorter sparkline or no trend data at all, because the 200 SMA requires at least 200 data points.
The Indicators
What each signal means, how it works, and when it fails.
200-Day SMA — Price vs. Moving Average
200-Day SMA
Long-term trendLearn more about the 200 SMA
The 200-day SMA is the average of the last 200 daily closing prices — roughly 10 months of trading data. It smooths out short-term noise to reveal the long-term trend direction.
Why 200 days? It became the institutional standard because so many funds, ETFs, and algorithmic systems watch it, making it partially self-fulfilling. Large players act at this level, creating the support and resistance it is known for.
Historical performance: Backtests over decades show the 200 SMA is best understood as a drawdown reducer, not a return booster. Holding only when above the 200 SMA has historically cut maximum drawdowns roughly in half (e.g. −55% to −29% on the S&P 500), at the cost of slightly lower total returns.
Distance metric: The dashboard shows how far the current price is from the 200 SMA as a percentage. A large positive distance means the stock may be extended. A large negative distance means it has fallen far below.
Common misconceptions
- "Below the 200 SMA means sell immediately." — Most breaks are temporary. The market was higher 63% of the time one month after crossing below.
- "It predicts reversals." — It is a lagging indicator that confirms what has already happened.
- "It works on all assets." — Works best on trending equities. Poor on mean-reverting assets like bonds and gold.
Weight by category
Golden Cross & Death Cross — 50 vs. 200 SMA
Golden Cross & Death Cross
Medium-term momentumLearn more about crossover signals
The 50 SMA reflects medium-term momentum (about 10 weeks), while the 200 SMA reflects the long-term trend. When the faster line crosses the slower one, it signals that recent price action is overpowering the historical baseline.
Golden cross: In long index samples it has often been followed by positive 12-month returns, mainly because it keeps you invested through bull markets — but results are sample-dependent. By the time it prints, price has often already risen 10–20% from the low.
Death cross trap: Shorting the death cross has historically been a poor strategy. The death cross often fires near market bottoms, after the worst decline is already over — treat it as defence, not an invitation to short.
Pitfalls
- Lag: Both MAs are built from past prices — by the time a cross prints, much of the move has happened.
- Whipsaws: In sideways markets, the 50 and 200 converge and cross repeatedly, generating false signals (2011, 2015–16).
Weight by category
20-Day EMA — Short-term Trend
20-Day EMA
Short-term trendLearn more about the 20 EMA
Unlike the SMA which weights all days equally, the Exponential Moving Average gives more weight to recent prices. For a 20-day EMA, today's price gets about 9.5% of the weight, making it faster to react to price changes.
Why 20 days? Twenty trading days is approximately one calendar month — the standard lookback for swing trading and short-term trend assessment. Commonly used as dynamic support in uptrends and resistance in downtrends.
- Trend health: When price stays above a rising 20 EMA, the short-term trend is intact. Repeated closes below suggest weakness.
- Pullback context: In an uptrend, pullbacks to the 20 EMA are often where buying interest resumes.
- Faster feedback: The 20 EMA reacts days before the 50 or 200 SMA — an early warning of change.
Weight by category
RSI(14) Zones
RSI — Relative Strength Index
Momentum speedLearn more about RSI
RSI measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes on a scale from 0 to 100, comparing average gain to average loss over 14 days (Wilder smoothing). When gains dominate, RSI rises; when losses dominate, it falls.
Common misconception
"RSI above 70 means sell." This is wrong in trending markets. During strong bull runs (like TQQQ in 2023-24), RSI stayed above 70 for weeks while price continued climbing. Overbought is a caution flag, not a timing signal.
Weight by category
MACD (12, 26, 9)
MACD
Momentum confirmationLearn more about MACD
MACD tracks the relationship between two EMAs (12-day fast, 26-day slow). The MACD line is the difference between them. A 9-day EMA of the MACD line serves as the "signal line." The histogram shows the gap — when it's expanding, momentum is accelerating.
Why MACD matters for leveraged ETFs: MACD gets 30% weight for leveraged stocks (vs 25% for growth) because momentum confirmation is critical when holding 2×–3× exposure. A bearish MACD cross on the base stock means the leveraged derivative is likely to suffer amplified losses plus volatility decay.
Weight by category
Indicator Limitations
- Lagging by design: Every moving average is calculated from past prices. They confirm trends, not predict them. The goal is to capture the middle of the trend, not the extremes.
- Fail in ranging markets: In sideways or choppy markets, they generate frequent false signals. When the market is ranging, treat signals with skepticism.
- Not standalone systems: No single indicator should be the sole basis for a decision. The dashboard gives you a quick read on trend status, not automatic buy/sell triggers.
- Asset suitability: Most reliable on broad equity indices and large-cap stocks. Less reliable on mean-reverting assets (bonds, gold) or small-cap stocks.
Market Regime
How scared is the market, and what does that mean for your positions?
VIX — The Market's Fear Gauge
The CBOE Volatility Index measures expected 30-day S&P 500 volatility, derived from options prices. Higher VIX means the market expects larger price swings. This dashboard classifies VIX into four regimes using the 10-day SMA:
VIX Regime Zones
VIX Term Structure
The term structure shows how expected volatility varies across time horizons. The CBOE publishes VIX9D (9-day), VIX (30-day), and VIX3M (3-month) indices.
VIX Term Structure
Normal — fear is contained
Stress — near-term fear is acute
What backwardation means for position sizing
Backwardation is a risk regime signal, not a directional one. Median 4-week returns after VIX inversion (+1.45%) are nearly identical to contango weeks (+1.69%). However, the distribution widens — roughly 60% of backwardation weeks produce larger absolute moves.
- Backwardation is not a reliable sell signal
- Position sizing should account for wider potential swings
- Leveraged positions are particularly vulnerable during backwardation
CNN Fear & Greed Index
A composite of 7 market indicators (momentum, breadth, put/call, junk bond demand, volatility, safe haven demand). Scores 0–100 where 0 is extreme fear and 100 is extreme greed.
When VIX is in Panic Reversal and Fear & Greed shows Extreme Fear, fear is likely priced in — a zone to watch for entries, sized small. The composite scores Panic Reversal the same as Calm (no contrarian bonus): risk first.
Options Context
What the options market is telling you — context for conviction, not direction.
Why Options Signals Matter
Every options contract is a bet on magnitude, timing, and direction. Because options traders must put up real capital with an expiration deadline, the options market captures conviction in a way that stock prices alone cannot.
Technical Analysis answers
Which direction? When to enter/exit? Is momentum confirming?
Options Signals answer
How much risk to take? Is fear/greed extreme? Where are large positions concentrated?
Options signals modulate conviction and position size — they never override directional signals. A bullish call sweep should never override a death cross.
IV vs. HV Ratio
Implied volatility (IV) is the market's expectation of how much a stock will move. Historical volatility (HV) is how much it actually moved. The ratio tells you whether options are "cheap" or "expensive" relative to reality.
IV / HV Ratio
How to use IV/HV for position sizing
- Cheap IV + bullish technicals: Higher-conviction entry. Low fear, room to run.
- Expensive IV + bullish technicals: Proceed with caution. Even if direction is right, expect a volatile path. Smaller positions.
- Expensive IV + bearish technicals: Market is already scared. Contrarian setups may emerge if IV starts falling.
Volatility mean-reverts: periods of extremely high IV tend to be followed by decreasing IV, and vice versa. This is why "buying the dip" during IV spikes (VIX > 35) has historically been profitable.
Put/Call Ratio
The put/call ratio divides put options traded by call options traded. The dashboard tracks the equity P/C ratio (10-day EMA) — the cleanest sentiment gauge, uncontaminated by institutional index hedging.
This is a contrarian indicator — extremes suggest the crowd is wrong. Heavy put buying (high ratio) historically signals bottoms. Aggressive call buying (low ratio) signals tops.
Caveats and interpretation
- The 10-day EMA smooths daily noise — wait for reversal from extremes, not just extreme levels
- "Normal" thresholds have drifted upward since the 2002 bear market
- Useless in the 0.60–0.90 middle range — only signals at extremes
- Extreme readings don't tell you when the reversal will happen (days or weeks)
Open Interest & OI Walls
Open interest is the total number of outstanding option contracts. When OI concentrates at specific strikes, it creates "walls" — dealer hedging creates real buying/selling pressure at those levels.
When OI walls matter and when they don't
Strongest near monthly OPEX when gamma is highest and dealer hedging is most active. The dashboard uses the nearest monthly expiration.
Best on high-OI names (SPY, QQQ, NVDA, MSFT). Illiquid names with scattered OI provide little signal.
Reinforced by confluence: When an OI wall aligns with a technical level (200 SMA, round number), support/resistance is strengthened from two independent sources.
- OI does not tell you who holds positions — could be bets, hedges, or complex strategies
- OI shifts daily as positions open and close — walls can dissolve within a week
- Strong catalysts (earnings, Fed) break through OI walls
Unusual Options Volume
When trading activity on specific contracts far exceeds existing open interest, it suggests new positions are being opened with unusual urgency. The minimum 100-contract threshold filters out low-liquidity noise.
Limitations and how to use
Treat unusual volume as an attention flag, not a trade signal. When the dashboard flags it, it means "something is happening — investigate further."
- Cannot determine intent — could be buying or selling pressure
- Multi-leg strategies distort individual strike activity
- "Smart money" is an unverifiable marketing label — no account identifiers in public data
- Academic studies show ~60% directional accuracy for aggregate unusual activity
Advanced Concepts — reference only (not implemented)
These concepts require paid data feeds or complex computation. They help contextualize the signals that are implemented.
IV Skew & SKEW Index
Measures asymmetry in IV across strikes. Steep put skew = rising perceived tail risk. SKEW above 130–150 indicates elevated demand for crash protection, though it can remain elevated for months.
Gamma Exposure (GEX)
Estimates aggregate dealer gamma. Positive GEX = dealers dampen moves (buy dips, sell rallies). Negative GEX = dealers amplify moves. One of the most impactful signals for intraday behavior, but requires per-contract Greeks not available from free APIs.
Max Pain
The strike where maximum contracts expire worthless. Backtests show 41–50% accuracy — essentially a coin flip. Works slightly better in low-VIX environments (~57%). Not implemented.
Vanna & Charm Flows
Second-order Greeks driving dealer hedging. Vanna: IV drops → dealers buy stock ("vanna rally"). Charm: time decay → mechanical buying/selling near expiration. Explains moves that TA cannot, especially around FOMC and monthly OPEX.
Dark Pool Confluence
~40–45% of US equity volume flows off-exchange. When dark pool blocks align with unusual options activity, it suggests higher-conviction institutional positioning. Requires specialized data (FINRA ADF, SqueezeMetrics DIX).
Signal Reliability
A — Reliable
VIX regime, term structure, equity P/C extremes
Use for: position sizing, risk budget
B — Useful Context
IV/HV ratio, OI walls
Use for: key levels, volatility context
C — Use with Caution
Unusual volume, max pain, GEX
Use for: attention flags only, near OPEX
D — Institutional-Grade
Options flow, dark pool, vanna/charm
Requires paid tools, high noise
Strategy Playbooks
The decision framework, category strategies, and leveraged ETF rules.
The Four-Tier Decision Framework
Each tier answers a different question. Lower tiers only matter when the higher tiers have been addressed.
Decision Flowchart
Example Scenarios
| Technical Signal | Options Context | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Above 200 SMA + golden cross | P/C neutral, IV cheap | Full position — low fear, cheap options |
| Above 200 SMA + bullish | P/C extremely low | Reduce size — crowd too greedy |
| Below 200 SMA + death cross | P/C > 1.0 (extreme fear) | Watch for reversal — fear saturated |
| Below 200 SMA + bearish | VIX backwardation + IV expensive | Minimal exposure — acute stress |
| RSI oversold + MACD bull cross | P/C falling from extreme | Strong contrarian setup |
| Breakout above 20 EMA | Call wall OI within 2% | Expect resistance — scale in gradually |
Strategy Profiles by Category
Each category has a different risk profile and optimal strategy. Here's what "green across the board" means for each:
Growth Stocks
GOOG, MSFT, SPY, ORCL, NOK, DRAM, SPMO, RDW
When green: All MAs aligned bullish + RSI bullish + MACD confirming + VIX calm. Highest-conviction entry. Hold through normal pullbacks to the 20 EMA.
Weight focus: 200 SMA (25%) and MACD (25%) — trend direction matters most; the cross is confirmation only (10%).
Leveraged ETFs
QQQ/TQQQ, NAIL, USAR, and 7 paired stocks
When green: Entry MA clear + MACD bullish cross + RSI not overbought + VIX calm. Use tight stop-losses and respect max hold periods.
Weight focus: MACD (30%) and RSI (20%) — momentum matters more than trend for tactical entries.
Dividend Stocks
HDV, Maybank, NVO
When green: Stable uptrend + low volatility. Hold-and-collect positions. Consider tax efficiency — 30% WHT reduces effective yield on US dividends. Maybank (0% WHT) is the most tax-efficient dividend holding.
Weight focus: Same as growth — trend stability matters for income positions.
Leveraged ETF Rules
3× ETFs
2× ETFs
The stop shown on each card is a reference level from today's price — the dashboard does not know your entry. Set your real stop from your actual entry and size the position from it: Position size = (Account × Risk%) ÷ |Entry − Stop| (see Market Wizards). The −10%/−15% figures are unverified rules of thumb that ignore current volatility; volatility-based (ATR) stops are a planned follow-up.
Why leveraged ETFs need timing (volatility decay explained)
A 3× leveraged ETF delivers 3× the daily return, not 3× the cumulative return. In a volatile sideways market, daily rebalancing causes the ETF to lose value even if the underlying index is flat. Example: if the base drops 10% then recovers 11.1% (back to par), the 3× ETF drops 30% then gains 33.3% — ending at 93.3%, a 6.7% loss.
Studies of leveraged ETFs generally find that simple moving-average timing reduces drawdowns versus buy-and-hold (for example, one widely-cited TQQQ study over 2010–2022 found materially higher returns and far smaller drawdowns from a 200 SMA filter). Those figures are specific to that period and instrument — treat them as evidence that timing reduces damage, not as an expected return.
Deep crash warning
In extreme scenarios, leveraged ETFs can lose nearly everything. During the 2020 COVID crash, some 3× ETFs lost over 70% in weeks. A 33.3% single-day drop in the base index would wipe out 99.94% of a 3× ETF's value. This is why the dashboard enforces a score cap of 2.0 during VIX Crisis.
Note on NVII: Categorized as "leveraged" despite being a covered-call strategy, because its concentrated single-stock exposure with options overlay shares more risk characteristics with leveraged products than with traditional growth stocks. The leverage=2 parameter is a risk-treatment proxy.
Market Wizards — Risk First
What Jack Schwager's top traders agree on, the formulas behind it, and an honest audit of this dashboard against both.
The Core Learning, Condensed
The traders in Market Wizards (Schwager, 1989) use wildly different methods — trend following, macro, fundamental, contrarian. Their methods diverge; their risk rules converge almost completely. The dashboard above answers "which direction?" The Wizards insist the question that decides survival is "how much do I lose if I'm wrong?"
1. Capital preservation comes first. Protecting capital is not a platitude — it is the operational foundation. Every Wizard prioritises not losing over making money.
2. Cut losses, let winners run. Small losses and large gains is the mathematical foundation. By Richard Dennis's estimate, ~95% of profits come from ~5% of trades — missing or truncating the big winners is more costly than any single loss.
3. Risk a small, fixed fraction per trade. Kovner and Hite cap risk near 1% per trade; Marcus near 5% as a ceiling. Shrink size when losing — never revenge-trade, never average down.
4. Position size is derived from the stop. Decide where the thesis is invalidated first, then size so that exit costs a known, small amount. Conviction never sets size.
5. Know your total heat and correlation. Ten positions that all fall together are one trade, not ten. Re-evaluate every position as if you entered it today (Paul Tudor Jones).
6. Use a method that fits you, then follow it. Discipline, patience, and doing nothing are positions too. Most Wizards blew up early — the losses were the tuition that produced the discipline.
The Formulas
Position size = (Account × Risk%) ÷ |Entry − Stop|
1R = |Entry − Stop| — every outcome measured in R: stopped out = −1R, target at twice the risk = +2R
Expectancy (R) = Win% × AvgWin(R) − Loss% × AvgLoss(R)
Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + Reward:Risk)
Recovery gain = Drawdown ÷ (1 − Drawdown)
Equity after n straight losses = (1 − r)n
Kelly ceiling: f* = p − (1−p) / b — use half/quarter Kelly at most; it is a ceiling, not a target
For reference, this dashboard's indicators: SMA = average of last n closes; EMA weights recent prices with k = 2/(n+1); RSI(14) compares Wilder-smoothed average gain to average loss; MACD = EMA12 − EMA26 with a 9-day signal line; Composite = 10 × Σ(weight × sub-score) / 2, with missing indicators excluded and the remaining weights renormalised.
Drawdown Recovery — Why Losses Hurt More Than Gains Help
Recovery gain = loss ÷ (1 − loss). A loss shrinks the base the recovery is earned on.
Up to about −20% recovery is a similar-sized job. Beyond −30% the curve bends hard: a halved account must double just to break even.
Position Sizing — Size Comes From the Stop
Account
100,000
Risk 1%
1,000
max loss if stopped
Entry 50 → Stop 46
4 / share
1R per share
Position size
250 shares
1,000 ÷ 4 = 12,500 notional
Same system, same losing streak — only the risk size changes
At 1% risk a normal bad streak is annoying and survivable. At 5% the same streak needs +67% just to recover. Risk size does not change your edge — it decides whether you live to collect it.
Expectancy Matrix — Win Rate Is Only Half the Equation
Expectancy (R per trade) = Win% × Avg win − Loss% × 1R. Columns are avg win in R.
| Win rate | 0.5R | 1R | 1.5R | 2R | 3R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | -0.55R | -0.40R | -0.25R | -0.10R | +0.20R |
| 40% | -0.40R | -0.20R | 0.00R | +0.20R | +0.60R |
| 50% | -0.25R | 0.00R | +0.25R | +0.50R | +1.00R |
| 60% | -0.10R | +0.20R | +0.50R | +0.80R | +1.40R |
A 40% win rate with 2R average winners earns +0.20R per trade. A 60% win rate that cuts winners at 0.5R loses money. Cut losses, let winners run is arithmetic, not a slogan.
Audit of This Dashboard
Every input was graded on mathematical correctness, published evidence, correlation with the other inputs, failure mode, and Wizard-alignment — does it control risk, or only describe price? Grades use the same A–D reliability spirit as the Options chapter.
| Input | Grade | Verdict | Main failure mode / fix applied |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200 SMA | B+ | Legitimate regime filter / drawdown reducer. Weak return predictor. | Whisaws near the line; kept as top-weighted trend input, now distance-graduated |
| 50/200 Cross | B− | Useful long-cycle confirmation; very lagging. | Largely duplicates the 200 SMA — weight cut (20%→10% growth, 10%→5% leveraged) |
| 20 EMA | C+ | Timing aid only, inside a confirmed trend. | Noisy standalone; weight cut for growth/dividend, now distance-graduated |
| RSI(14) | C | Momentum speed, not a reversal oracle. Evidence is market-dependent. | Was inverted in a trend system (oversold = max score). Now trend-conditioned and value-graduated |
| MACD(12,26,9) | C | Momentum confirmation; rarely profitable standalone after costs. | EMA-derived, so correlated with the MA block — kept as confirmation, not a separate "vote" |
| Composite score | C+ → B− | A readable summary — after de-duplication. Never validated against forward returns. | MA/VIX double-counting removed; missing data no longer inflates to "Favorable" |
| VIX regime | B+ | Best use is position sizing / risk budget, exactly as the Wizards would use it. | Was counted up to three times for leveraged names; now counted once, caps remain as hard gates only |
| Fear & Greed / Term structure / Put-Call | B− | Sound sentiment context at extremes; correctly kept out of the score. | Useless mid-range; extremes don't time reversals |
| Options (IV/HV, OI walls, unusual vol) | C+ | Conviction/sizing context; never directional. Correctly excluded from the score. | IV/HV tenor mismatch fixed (HV now trailing 252d); OI 500-contract threshold is absolute, not relative |
| Risk metrics | C+ → B− | Volatility and drawdown are the Wizard metrics — if measured on a relevant window. | Vol/Sharpe were computed over 5 years; now trailing 252 trading days. "52wk %" is range position, not a percentile |
| Leveraged rules | C | Entry-MA discipline is sound; the numbers are unverified rules of thumb. | Stop is a reference level from today's price, not your entry — relabelled as such. ATR-based stops are the follow-up |
The biggest gap is not any indicator — it's the missing Wizard layer. The dashboard describes price well but, until this chapter, said nothing about position size, per-trade risk, portfolio heat, or expectancy. A score of 9 with 20% of your account at risk is a worse trade than a score of 7 sized at 1% risk.
Known limitations not yet fixed: the composite has never been backtested against forward returns (the 30-day score trend only re-derives the same formula historically); Yahoo closes are not dividend-adjusted, which distorts dividend-stock averages; a forward-return backtest harness and ATR-based leveraged stops are the recommended next steps.
Malaysian Investor Guide
Tax advantages, withholding, and practical considerations for Malaysian investors.
Your Tax Advantage
As a Malaysian investor, you have a significant structural advantage: 0% capital gains tax on stock sales. This tilts the optimal strategy heavily toward capital gains over dividend income.
Tax Impact Comparison
Malaysian investors pay zero CGT — profits are 100% yours
No US–MY tax treaty — full 30% withheld on all US dividends (HDV, NVO)
Ireland–US treaty reduces WHT — prefer CSPX over SPY, VHYL over HDV for income
Maybank (1155.KL) dividends — zero withholding, most tax-efficient income
Irish-Domiciled Alternatives
Ireland's US treaty cuts WHT from 30% to 15%. For income-focused positions, prefer these LSE-listed alternatives:
| US ETF | Irish Alt | Exchange | WHT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | CSPX | LSE | 15% |
| HDV | VHYL | LSE | 15% |
⚠️ US Estate Tax Warning
Non-resident aliens (including Malaysians) face US estate tax on US-situs assets exceeding $60,000 — rates up to 40%. This applies to US stocks and ETFs held directly. Irish-domiciled ETFs avoid this entirely.
Remittance exemption & options data timing
Remittance exemption: Foreign-sourced income remitted to Malaysia is currently exempt from tax (extended through 2036). Capital gains and dividends from overseas investments are not taxed again when brought back. However, this exemption could change — stay updated with LHDN guidelines.
Options data timing: US options data updates end-of-day Eastern Time (4:00 PM ET = 4:00/5:00 AM MYT next day). Options signals on this dashboard are suited for MYT morning review. Options-based signals are not applicable to Malaysian stocks like Maybank (1155.KL) due to limited Bursa Malaysia equity options.
Backtesting & Research
| Strategy | Win Rate | Key Finding | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200 SMA (S&P 500) | ~64% | Cuts max drawdown by ~50%, slightly lower total return | 1928–2023 |
| Golden Cross | Sample-dependent | Often positive 12-month returns after signal in long index samples; mainly a drawdown filter | 1970–2023 |
| TQQQ timing (MA) | Sample-dependent | MA timing materially beat buy-and-hold in one 2010–2022 study, with far smaller drawdowns | 2010–2022 |
| VIX regime filter | N/A | Being out during sustained VIX > 30 avoids much crash exposure — a sizing rule, not a return predictor | 2000–2023 |
Figures summarise long-sample published studies and vary materially by market, period, and costs. This dashboard's own composite score has not been backtested against forward returns — see the Market Wizards audit above.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. All backtesting data is subject to survivorship bias, data-snooping bias, and changing market conditions. The strategies on this dashboard are educational tools, not investment advice. Always do your own research and consider your personal risk tolerance.